Survive the Herd2026 · Week 1

1 of your top 6 picks change in a medium pool.

Small-pool EV is free. Season Pass unlocks Medium / Large — less than a fifth of a typical buy-in.

Don’t run with the herd.

—

Top EV

JAX 1.05

79.6% win · 26.8% Herd · best pot share this week

The Herd

LAC 32.8%

80.0% win · most popular pick

Survival Pick

Pool Size

Season Pass unlocks Medium and Large pool EV

This week’s picks

Tap a team to burn it. Sort any column — Herd % is a heat map (green = low ownership, red = crowded).

#
Opp
1vs CLE-8.579.6%26.80%1.05
2vs ARI-9.580.0%32.84%1.03
3vs ATL-669.6%4.02%1.02
4vs WSH-668.5%2.32%1.02
5vs NO-772.6%15.35%1.00
6vs TB-3.563.7%0.78%0.95
7vs SF-3.563.7%1.18%0.95
8@ IND-3.560.9%0.80%0.91
9vs NE-360.4%1.75%0.90
10@ CAR-360.4%2.43%0.89
11@ NYG-359.3%1.14%0.89
12vs MIA-360.4%4.53%0.88
13vs DEN-2.557.2%0.26%0.86
14vs GB-1.553.2%0.13%0.80
15vs NYJ-1.553.2%2.58%0.79
16@ HOU-1.551.7%0.69%0.77
17vs BUF+1.548.3%0.06%0.73
18@ TEN+1.546.8%0.41%0.72
19@ MIN+1.546.8%0.23%0.70
20@ KC+2.542.8%0.31%0.64
21@ LV+339.6%0.18%0.63
22vs DAL+340.7%0.13%0.62
23vs CHI+339.6%0.06%0.61
24@ SEA+339.6%0.36%0.61
25vs BAL+3.539.1%0.05%0.59
26@ LAR+3.536.3%0.19%0.55
27@ CIN+3.536.3%0.15%0.55
28@ DET+727.4%0.05%0.50
29@ PHI+631.5%0.03%0.49
30@ PIT+630.4%0.04%0.48
31@ LAC+9.520.0%0.08%0.48
32@ JAX+8.520.4%0.09%0.45

Teams you’ve burned

No teams burned yet — tap a team above to burn it this season.

Season planner

Projected spreads by week from market lines. Cells heat by matchup strength — green for favorites, red for underdogs. Click any column to sort; current-week cells show pot-share EV when pick data is open.

ARI0.48SEA +10@SF +11.5@NYG +7DET +8.5@LAR +13.5DEN +7.5@DAL +10.5@SEA +13.5LAR +10.5@KC +11.5WSH +4.5PHI +8.5byeNYJ +1.5@NO +5.5LV +1.5SF +8.5
ATL0.480.75@GB +7.5@NO +2.5BAL +4.5CHI +3SF +4.5@TB +4.5CIN +5.5KC +4.5bye@MIN +4.5DET +3.5@CLE +1.5@WSH +3.5TB +1.5NO -1.5@CAR +2.5
BAL0.911.03@DAL -2.5TEN -8.5@ATL -4.5@CLE -6.5CIN -3.5@BUF +2.5JAX -4.5LAC -3.5@CAR -4.5@HOU +1.5byeTB -6@PIT -2.5CLE -10@CIN +2.5PIT -5.5
BUF0.770.82LAC -3NE -3@LAR +3@LV -6.5byeBAL -2.5@MIN -3@NYJ -7MIA -11.5KC -2.5@NE +1.5@GB +1.5CHI -3.5@DEN -1.5@MIA -7.5NYJ -10
CAR0.61@ATL +1.5@CLE -1.5DET +3bye@PHI +6.5TB +1.5@GB +7DEN +3@NO +1.5BAL +4.5@TB +3.5@MIN +3.5NO -2.5CIN +2.5@PIT +3.5SEA +5.5ATL -2.5
CHI0.89MIN -3PHI -1.5NYJ -8.5@GB +3@ATL -3NE -1.5@SEA +4.5TB -3.5byeNO -6.5@DET +2.5JAX -3@MIA -5.5@BUF +3.5GB -1.5DET -1.5@MIN +1.5
CIN0.950.61@PIT -1.5JAX -2.5@MIA -6bye@BAL +3.5TEN -6.5@ATL -5.5PIT -3.5@WSH -1.5NO -6.5@CLE -4.5KC -1.5@CAR -2.5@IND -1.5BAL -2.5CLE -7.5
CLE0.450.45CAR +1.5PIT +2.5@NYJ +2.5BAL +6.5@TEN +2.5@PIT +6@NO +3.5HOU +4.5byeLV -1.5CIN +4.5ATL -1.5@NYG +4.5@BAL +10IND +2.5@CIN +7.5
DAL0.89WSH -4.5BAL +2.5@HOU +2.5TB -3.5@GB +3@PHI +3ARI -10.5@IND -1.5SF -1.5TEN -6.5PHI -1.5@SEA +4.5bye@LAR +6JAX -3NYG -4.5@WSH -1.5
DEN0.640.82LAR +3@SF +2.5@LAC +2.5SEA +1.5@ARI -7.5KC -1.5@CAR -3byeLV -7.5@PIT -1.5MIA -9.5@NYJ -5.5@LV -4.5BUF +1.5@NE +2.5LAC -1.5
DET1.00@BUF +3NYJ -9.5@CAR -3@ARI -8.5byeGB -2.5MIN -4.5@MIA -6.5NE —TB -4.5CHI -2.5@ATL -3.5TEN -7.5@MIN -1.5NYG -4.5@CHI +1.5@GB +2.5
GB0.700.90ATL -7.5@TB -1.5CHI -3DAL -3@DET +2.5CAR -7@NE +1.5MIN -4.5bye@LAR +4.5@NO -4.5BUF -1.5MIA -10.5@CHI +1.5HOU -2.5DET -2.5
HOU0.730.81@IND -1.5DAL -2.5@TEN -3.5@JAX +1.5NYG -5.5bye@LAC +2.5@CLE -4.5IND -5.5BAL -1.5@PIT -1.5@WSH -1.5JAX -3@PHI +2.5@GB +2.5TEN -7
IND0.59@KC +6.5HOU +1.5@WSH +1.5@PIT +2.5TEN -3.5@MIN +2.5@JAX +4.5DAL +1.5MIA -6.5@HOU +5.5NYG -2.5bye@PHI +5.5@TEN -1.5CIN +1.5@CLE -2.5JAX -1.5
JAX1.05@DEN +3NE -1.5@CIN +2.5PHI +1.5HOU -1.5byeIND -4.5@BAL +4.5@TEN -2.5@NYG -1.5TEN -5.5@CHI +3PIT -3@HOU +3@DAL +3WSH -3.5@IND +1.5
KC0.861.03@MIA -7.5@LV -5.5byeLAC -2.5@SEA +3@DEN +1.5NYJ -9.5@ATL -4.5ARI -11.5@BUF +2.5@LAR +3.5@CIN +1.5NE -2.5SF -3@LAC +1.5LV -8.5
LV0.88@LAC +9.5@NO +3.5KC +5.5@NE +8.5BUF +6.5LAR +7.5@NYJ +1.5@SF +8.5SEA +7@DEN +7.5@CLE +1.5byeLAC +5.5DEN +4.5TEN -1.5@ARI -1.5@KC +8.5
LAC1.031.02@BUF +3@SEA +3DEN -2.5@KC +2.5bye@LAR +4.5HOU -2.5@BAL +3.5NYJ -9.5NE -1.5@TB -2.5@LV -5.5SF -2.5@MIA -7KC -1.5@DEN +1.5
LAR0.951.12@DEN -3@PHI -1.5BUF -3ARI -13.5@LV -7.5LAC -4.5@WSH -5.5@ARI -10.5byeGB -4.5KC -3.5@SF -1.5DAL -6@SEA —@TB -4.5SEA -3
MIA0.63@SF +10.5KC +7.5@MIN +7.5CIN +6bye@NYJ +2.5NE +7DET +6.5@IND +6.5@BUF +11.5NYJ -1.5@DEN +9.5CHI +5.5@GB +10.5LAC +7BUF +7.5@NE +10.5
MIN0.80@CHI +3@TB +1.5MIA -7.5@NO -1.5byeIND -2.5@DET +4.5BUF +3@GB +4.5@SF +3.5ATL -4.5CAR -3.5@NE +4.5DET +1.5WSH -2.5@NYJ -3.5CHI -1.5
NE0.61PIT -4.5@JAX +1.5@BUF +3LV -8.5NYJ -9.5@CHI +1.5@MIA -7GB -1.5@DET —bye@LAC +1.5BUF -1.5MIN -4.5@KC +2.5@NYJ -6.5DEN -2.5MIA -10.5
NO0.50@BAL +7.5LV -3.5ATL -2.5MIN +1.5@NYG +2.5PIT +2.5byeCLE -3.5CAR -1.5@CHI +6.5@CIN +6.5GB +4.5@CAR +2.5@TB +3.5ARI -5.5@ATL +1.5TB +1.5
NYG0.62@LAR +9.5TEN -3ARI -7@WSH +2.5NO -2.5@HOU +5.5bye@PHI +5.5WSH -1.5JAX +1.5@IND +2.5SF +3@SEA +7.5CLE -4.5@DET +4.5@DAL +4.5PHI +3
NYJ0.72GB +5.5@DET +9.5@CHI +8.5CLE -2.5@NE +9.5MIA -2.5LV -1.5@KC +9.5BUF +7@LAC +9.5@MIA +1.5byeDEN +5.5@ARI -1.5NE +6.5MIN +3.5@BUF +10
PHI1.020.91@CHI +1.5LAR +1.5@JAX -1.5CAR -6.5DAL -3@WSH -1.5NYG -5.5byePIT -5.5@DAL +1.5@ARI -8.5IND -5.5SEA -1.5HOU -2.5@SF +1.5@NYG -3
PIT1.02@NE +4.5CIN +1.5@CLE -2.5IND -2.5@TB +1.5@NO -2.5CLE -6bye@CIN +3.5@PHI +5.5DEN +1.5HOU +1.5@JAX +3BAL +2.5CAR -3.5@TEN -1.5@BAL +5.5
SF0.551.10ARI -11.5DEN -2.5@SEA +3.5WSH -5.5@ATL -4.5byeLV -8.5@DAL +1.5MIN -3.5SEA +1.5@NYG -3LAR +1.5@LAC +2.5@KC +3PHI -1.5@ARI -8.5
SEA0.901.13@WSH -3.5LAC -3SF -3.5@DEN -1.5KC -3CHI -4.5ARI -13.5@LV -7bye@SF -1.5DAL -4.5NYG -7.5@PHI +1.5LAR —@CAR -5.5@LAR +3
TB0.550.97MIN -1.5GB +1.5@DAL +3.5PIT -1.5@CAR -1.5ATL -4.5@CHI +3.5bye@DET +4.5CAR -3.5LAC +2.5@BAL +6NO -3.5@ATL -1.5LAR +4.5@NO -1.5
TEN0.79PHI +5.5@NYG +3@BAL +8.5HOU +3.5@IND +3.5CLE -2.5@CIN +6.5byeJAX +2.5@DAL +6.5@JAX +5.5WSH +1.5@DET +7.5IND +1.5@LV +1.5PIT +1.5@HOU +7
WSH0.49@DAL +4.5SEA +3.5IND -1.5NYG -2.5@SF +5.5byePHI +1.5LAR +5.5@NYG +1.5CIN +1.5@ARI -4.5@TEN -1.5HOU +1.5ATL -3.5@MIN +2.5@JAX +3.5DAL +1.5

Optimal path

Monte Carlo burn order using Survival Pick scores for your pool size.

Season Pass unlocks a simulated burn path and survival rate for your remaining teams.